Development of a Multi-Dimensional Parametric Model With Non-Pharmacological Policies for Predicting the COVID-19 Pandemic Casualties

dc.authoridPolat, Adem/0000-0002-5662-4141
dc.authoridBALIKCI, KEMAL/0000-0001-6234-5627
dc.authoridTutsoy, Onder/0000-0001-6385-3025
dc.contributor.authorTutsoy, Önder
dc.contributor.authorPolat, Adem
dc.contributor.authorColak, Sule
dc.contributor.authorBalikci, Kemal
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-06T17:37:15Z
dc.date.available2025-01-06T17:37:15Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread the world resulting in detrimental effects on human health, lives, societies, and economies. The state authorities mostly take non-pharmacological actions against the outbreak since there are no confirmed vaccines or treatments yet. In this paper, we developed Suspicious-Infected-Death with Non-Pharmacological policies (SpID-N) model to analyze the properties of the COVID-19 casualties and also estimate the future behavior of the outbreak. We can state the key contributions of the paper with three folds. Firstly, we propose the SpID-N model covering the higher-order internal dynamics which cause the peaks in the casualties. Secondly, we parametrize the non-pharmacological policies such as the curfews on people with chronic disease, people age over 65, people age under 20, restrictions on the weekends and holidays, and closure of the schools and universities. Thirdly, we explicitly incorporate the internal and coupled dynamics of the model with these multi-dimensional non-pharmacological policies. The corresponding higher-order and strongly coupled model has utterly unknown parameters and we construct a batch type Least Square (LS) based optimization algorithm to learn these unknown parameters from the available data. The parametric model and the predicted future casualties are analyzed extensively.
dc.description.sponsorshipTUBITAK, the Scientific and Research Council of Turkey [576708]
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by TUBITAK, the Scientific and Research Council of Turkey, under the project number: 576708.
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3044929
dc.identifier.endpage225283
dc.identifier.issn2169-3536
dc.identifier.pmid34812374
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85179551056
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage225272
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3044929
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14669/2167
dc.identifier.volume8
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000604528200001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherIEEE-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc
dc.relation.ispartofIeee Access
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241211
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectMathematical model
dc.subjectAnalytical models
dc.subjectData models
dc.subjectPredictive models
dc.subjectDiseases
dc.subjectPandemics
dc.subjectCOVID-19 casualties
dc.subjectnon-pharmacological approaches
dc.subjectpandemic
dc.subjectparametric model
dc.subjectprediction
dc.subjectSIR model
dc.subjectSpID model
dc.subjectSpID-N model
dc.titleDevelopment of a Multi-Dimensional Parametric Model With Non-Pharmacological Policies for Predicting the COVID-19 Pandemic Casualties
dc.typeArticle

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