Forecasting the European Union's space cooling potential using the cooling degree-day factor (1970-2024)

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dc.contributor.authorErbey, M. Mert
dc.contributor.authorOzdil, N. Filiz Tumen
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-27T07:33:34Z
dc.date.available2026-02-27T07:33:34Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.description.abstractAs heating demand increases in Europe, it is important to know how the balance between heating and cooling demand changes. It is crucial to know how the balance between heating and cooling demand changes. Using hourly ERA5-Land temperature data, this study creates a combined monthly data set for Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and Cooling Degree Day Factor (CDDF) for all EU-26 countries between 1970 and 2024. This study provides critical information for net-zero and sustainable energy planning by demonstrating climate-induced changes in the heating and cooling balance in Europe from 1970 to 2024. The high-resolution HDD-CDD-CDDF analyses provide direct scientific contributions to policies aimed at increasing energy efficiency and promoting climate-resilient buildings. Statistical run-tests verify that cooling demand has transitioned from randomness to a systematic, recurring seasonal signal. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used on monthly CDD series to make short-term predictions. Validation during a 24-month hold-out period demonstrated significant predictive capability, with mean absolute errors generally ranging from 5 to 12 degrees-days. Forecasts show that summer cooling plateaus will stay the same in Mediterranean areas and that loads will rise in transitional zones. These results show that Europe is quickly moving toward thermal regimes that are more focused on cooling. The dataset and model provide a replicable basis for climate-responsive architectural design, energy system planning, and the formulation of adaptation policies.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2026.140113
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.issn1873-6785
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2026.140113
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14669/4644
dc.identifier.volume344
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001675487100001
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofEnergy
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararas� Hakemli Dergi - Kurum ��retim Eleman�
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_20260302
dc.subjectCooling degree-day factor
dc.subjectHeating degree days
dc.subjectCooling degree days
dc.subjectSARIMA
dc.subjectClimate warming
dc.subjectCooling demand
dc.subjectEurope
dc.titleForecasting the European Union's space cooling potential using the cooling degree-day factor (1970-2024)
dc.typeArticle

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